Second-Order Cascade
Map the cascading consequences of a development, trend, or event — surfacing what will be obvious in 6 months but almost no one is talking about today. Based on Michael Simmons’ sense-making system for generating non-obvious analysis.
Here is the development I want to analyze: $ARGUMENTS
If no development was provided above, ask me to describe the news event, trend, or industry shift I want to map.
My audience is knowledge entrepreneurs — coaches, consultants, course creators, and thought leaders. Tailor the analysis to consequences that affect how they build, market, and deliver their expertise.
Work through these steps in order:
Step 1 — Second-order effects. Generate 8-10 second-order effects of this development. These are direct consequences — what happens next as a result. Aim for variety: economic, behavioral, competitive, cultural, regulatory, technological.
Step 2 — Third-order cascade. For the 3 most interesting second-order effects, generate 3 third-order consequences each. What does that cause to happen?
Step 3 — Probability weighting. Classify each chain as high-probability/high-impact, high-probability/low-impact, low-probability/high-impact, or low-probability/low-impact. Flag the low-probability/high-impact chains — these are the ones worth watching.
Step 4 — The 6-month insight. Identify the one insight from this cascade that my audience will recognize as true in 6 months but almost no one is discussing today. Explain the chain of reasoning that leads there.
Source
- 2026-03-19_Mastermind (Michael Simmons — sense-making system for non-obvious analysis)